1,018,999 Cases in Argentina 

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829,647 Recovered
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4,451 Critical
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27,100 Deaths


Country Cases New Cases Deaths New Deaths Critical Recovered
Argentina 1018999 0 27100 0 4451 829647
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COVID-19 Projections for Argentina


Introduction | Videos | Analysis | Evaluation | Policies | Disclaimer | Contact


Introduction

In this section, we give a short summary about our projections and analysis for Argentina.

NOTE: We have updated again our projection. New first projection day for Argentina is September 1, 2020.

If there will be any more updates, we will inform you on this page. You can view projections of other countries here.


Videos

These videos are an animation of confirmed cases and deaths with embedded the measures taken from country authorities. We believe that with these timelapses it is more easy to understand the magnitude and the speed of spreading of COVID-19. These videos will not be updated daily, but whenever is necessary. To see the projections scroll up to the top of this page.


Analysis

Our analysis for COVID-19 progression in Argentina is based on multiple parameters. Some of them are the Mobility and Activity Index (MAI), number of daily tests, positivity rate. These parameters are presented in the figures below.

Τhe Mobility and Activity Index (MAI) is based on the data provided from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. In this dataset Google provides mobility trends for Grocery & pharmacy(grocery markets, food warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, drug stores, and pharmacies), Parks (local parks, national parks, public beaches, marinas, dog parks, plazas, and public gardens), Transit stations (public transport hubs such as subway, bus, and train stations), Retail & recreation (restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters), Residential (places of residence) and Workplaces (places of work).

Τhe Mobility and Activity Index (MAI) is created by applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in 5 out of 6 trends, we left out Parks as they highly collerated with seasonality. By definition the Mobility and Activity Index (MAI) is a weighted sum function of the mobility trends and shows the mobility and economic activity of each country.

For Argentina the first principal component (PC1) of PCA can explain 94.05% of the total variance.

Mobility and Activity Index (MAI) = 0.37*T(Retail & Recreation) + 0.18*T(Grocery & Pharmacy) + 0.32*T(Transit) + 0.24*T(Workplaces) - 0.11*T(Residential)

mobility and activity index

The baseline is calculated by Google as the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. After lockdown of March in Argentina we see a dramatic drop of the MAI at a level of -85%. In May some measures were lifted and the MAI gained 25%. During June and July cases and deaths were surging and MAI stayed to a level of -50%. In August, coronavirus prevalence has increased its rates, so MAI stayed stagnant at -45%. In summary, Mobility and Activity Index for Argentina gained 40% from the support level and has a 36.8% percent to achieve pre-coronavirus levels.

Another figure that can explain qualitative the COVID-19 curves by its quantity over time is the daily tests performed. Data for testing are available from Our World in Data via Github here.

number of test

As it can be observed the number of tests followed the increase of cases. In August testing capacity is plateauing at a level of 19500 - 20500 daily tests. Now Argentina increased their capacity of daily sample tests to a level of 24000 tests.

We combined the data of daily tests with the daily confirmed cases to produce a figure of positivity rate. This rate is a good indicator about our control over the COVID-19 pandemic. A positivity rate under 1% is considered safe zone, a positivity rate above 20% is considered hot zone.

positivity rate

We observe that from May and on the positivity rate increased with the same speed that number of tests increased. This indicates that COVID-19 is not under control in Argentina. As cases are increasing and tests plateauing, the positivity rate surpasses the limit of 45%. The good news is that is starting to show signs of stabilization.

The aforementioned information were derived from the data and from this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on our simulation model. The results of which are diplayed as projections in the first figures of this webpage.

The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.

The initial population of Argentina that has been incorporated into the model is 45,195,777.

The first case reported on 06/03/2020 and the first death reported two days later on 08/03/2020.

With this in mind, we assume that around 50 exposed persons entered Argentina between 10/02/2020 and 25/02/2020.

In our projection model season has an effect of 30%.

The reaction time of people to the measures was 7 days, on average.

The confirmed cases now are around 40% of the real number.

We estimate that until 17/09/2020 a 5.38% percent of the total population of Argentina has been infected and 4.32% percent of the total population of Argentina has been recovered.

Overall, Argentina despite the strict measures taken for the COVID-19 doesn't achieve to control efficiently the prevalence of the coronavirus. Our projection shows that, if the measures that imposed will continue and the people are following the rules for personal protection measures at a level of 85%, then the curves will downtrend at the end of September.

More details about the model can be found here.

Please visit the official website of Argentinian Ministry of Health for official information.


Evaluation of the projections models

We use as evaluation metrics the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and median absolute percentage error (MdAPE) on the cumulative cases and deaths, respectively. We made this decision in order to allow comparability of our models with other forecasting models for COVID-19. See details of performance of other prediction models here.

The overall performance of our projections is obtained by a weighting average of the metrics of each model. As weights the normalized to one number of days is used.

The partial and overall Absolute Percentage Errors (APEs) of our projections of COVID-19 for Argentina with the confirmed cumulative cases it shown in the next table. Lower value is better performance.

Argentina - cumulative cases models evaluation
ModelStart DateEnd DateDaysMAPEMdAPE
12020-08-242020-09-0182.71%3.03%
22020-09-012020-09-20191.27%1.33%
Overall2020-08-242020-09-20271.7%1.83%

The partial and overall Absolute Percentage Errors (APEs) of our projections of COVID-19 for Argentina with the confirmed cumulative deaths it shown in the next table. Lower value is better performance.


Argentina - cumulative deaths models evaluation
ModelStart DateEnd DateDaysMAPEMdAPE
12020-08-242020-09-0181.68%1.84%
22020-09-012020-09-20192.41%2.31%
Overall2020-08-242020-09-20272.2%2.17%


Policies

The measures taken by Argentina authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:

Argentina - Containment and closure policies
PoliciesDateLevelFlag
School closing16/03/20203 - require closing all levels1 - general
School closing03/08/20203 - require closing all levels0 - targeted
Workplace closing19/03/20203 - require closing or work from home for all-but-essential workplaces1 - general
Workplace closing26/04/20203 - require closing or work from home for all-but-essential workplaces0 - targeted
Workplace closing12/05/20202 - require closing or work from home for some sectors0 - targeted
Workplace closing01/07/20203 - require closing or work from home for all-but-essential workplaces0 - targeted
Workplace closing20/07/20202 - require closing or work from home for some sectors1 - general
Workplace closing07/08/20203 - require closing or work from home for all-but-essential workplaces0 - targeted
Cancel public events11/03/20202 - require cancelling0 - targeted
Cancel public events20/03/20202 - require cancelling1 - general
Restrictions on gatherings19/03/20204 - restrictions on gatherings of 10 people or less1 - general
Close public transport23/03/20202 - require closing or prohibit most citizens from using it1 - general
Close public transport07/08/20202 - require closing or prohibit most citizens from using it0 - targeted
Stay at home requirements19/03/20203 - require not leaving house with minimal exceptions1 - general
Stay at home requirements27/04/20202 - require not leaving house with exceptions1 - general
Stay at home requirements05/06/20202 - require not leaving house with exceptions0 - targeted
Restrictions on internal movement20/03/20202 - internal movement restrictions in place1 - general
Restrictions on internal movement27/04/20201 - recommend not to travel between regions/cities1 - general
Restrictions on internal movement11/05/20202 - internal movement restrictions in place1 - general
International travel controls11/03/20202 - quarantine arrivals from some or all regions1 - general
International travel controls16/03/20204 - ban on all regions or total border closure1 - general

Argentina - Health system policies
PoliciesDateLevelFlag
Public information campaigns23/01/20202 - coordinated public information campaign1 - general
Testing policy04/03/20201 - only those who both (a) have symptoms AND (b) meet specific criteria1 - general
Contact tracing04/03/20202 - comprehensive contact tracing; done for all identified cases1 - general

Argentina - Economic policies
PoliciesDateLevelFlag
Income support23/03/20201 - government is replacing less than 50% of lost salary1 - transfers to informal sector workers too
Debt/contract relief25/03/20202 - broad debt/contract relief1 - general

Level is in ordinal scale and higher value means more strict measures. Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.


Disclaimer

This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.

The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.

We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. Covid-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.

The project is self-funded. Your contribution is important for the operating expenses of this site and for coffee, our basic fuel. Every donation will help us continue this effort.


Contact

If you find this analysis useful please do not hesitate to contact us at: info@covid-analysis.com