In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for Brazil.
NOTE: We have updated again our projection. New first projection day for Brazil is August 1, 2020.
If there will be any more updates, we will inform you on this page. You can view projections of other countries here.
These videos are an animation of confirmed cases and deaths with embedded the measures taken from country authorities. We believe that with these timelapses it is more easy to understand the magnitude and the speed of spreading of COVID-19. These videos will not be updated daily, but whenever is necessary. To see the projections scroll up to the top of this page.
The initial population of Brazil that has been incorporated into the model is 212,559,409.
The first case reported on 29/02/2020 and the first death reported on 17/03/2020.
From first case to first measures : 12 days. From first deaths to first measures : -5 days. From first measure to lockdown : 54 days. Duration of lockdown : 27 days. From partially re-opening to today ( 01/08/2020 ) : 62 days.
The aforementioned information is derived from the data and from this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model for our projection.
The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.
With this in mind, we assume that around 50 exposed persons entered Brazil between 09/02/2020 and 24/02/2020.
We assume that season has an effect of 26%.
The confirmed cases are around 7% of the real number.
The reaction time of people to the measures is 12 days, on average.
The Potential Isolation Effectiveness reached 20%. The Behavioral Risk Reduction reached 80% because of Restrictions on gatherings at level 4, that was applied on 26/04/2020. With the policy Stay at home at level 2 that was applied on 05/05/2020 the Behavioral Risk Reduction reached 90%. At 01/06/2020 there was a partial re-opening of workplaces and becauses of this policy, Behavioral Risk Reduction reaches around 83%. Previous projections explained the progression of coronavirus in Brazil very accurately. For the current projections nothing changed, Brazil's COVID-19 situation is very fragile.
Overall, Brazil needs to take more measures.
The peak will be reached at the end of May.
It is not clear when there will be a peak in the curve.
The most possible scenario is that there will be a plateau on the curve until late June. Then, the curve may start to fall. This is a hypothesis scenario which assumes that the lockdown measures are around 88%.
The most possible scenario is that there will be no peak in the curve until serious measures will be taken, or the end of winter comes.
Regarding the issue with the data, we want to say that in our site we use multiple sources, as described here. According to the mathematical model, there seems to be an incosistency between the deaths and the cases. There may be many reasons for this incosistency, such as delays in the reporting or increase of hospital capacity (which reduces death rate); we cannot be sure for the cause. The increase in cases is much bigger than the increase in deaths and it cannot be explained just by the increase in testing. Our assumption is that Brazilian authorities don't have resources to record all deaths from COVID-19.
More details about the model can be found here.
Please visit the official website of Brazil's ministry of Health for official information.
The measures taken by Brazil authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:
|Cancel public events||12/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on gatherings||14/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on gatherings||18/03/2020||3|
|Restrictions on gatherings||26/04/2020||4|
|Close public transport||19/03/2020||1|
|Close public transport||21/03/2020||2|
|Stay at home requirements||13/03/2020||1|
|Stay at home requirements||05/05/2020||2|
|Restrictions on internal movement||17/03/2020||2|
|International travel controls||13/03/2020||2|
|International travel controls||19/03/2020||3|
|International travel controls||27/03/2020||4|
|Fiscal measures||18/03/2020||$ 32243 M|
|Fiscal measures||19/03/2020||$ 1943 M|
|Fiscal measures||22/03/2020||$ 10862 M|
|Fiscal measures||23/03/2020||$ 15641 M|
|Fiscal measures||25/03/2020||$ 672 M|
|Fiscal measures||01/04/2020||$ 117839 M|
|Fiscal measures||02/04/2020||$ 125 M|
|Fiscal measures||08/04/2020||$ 0 M|
|Fiscal measures||17/04/2020||$ 113 M|
|Fiscal measures||20/04/2020||$ 892 M|
|Fiscal measures||24/04/2020||$ 4528 M|
|Fiscal measures||27/04/2020||$ 88 M|
|Fiscal measures||05/05/2020||$ 0 M|
|Fiscal measures||08/05/2020||$ 869 M|
|Public information campaigns||29/01/2020||1|
|Public information campaigns||02/03/2020||2|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||18/03/2020||$ 878 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||23/03/2020||$ 1560 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||31/03/2020||$ 187 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||02/04/2020||$ 9 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||03/04/2020||$ 1758 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||08/04/2020||$ 63 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||09/04/2020||$ 2 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||10/04/2020||$ 783 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||11/04/2020||$ 2 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||13/04/2020||$ 50 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||14/04/2020||$ 28 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||15/04/2020||$ 8 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||16/04/2020||$ 227 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||21/04/2020||$ 14 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||04/05/2020||$ 10 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||06/05/2020||$ 15 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||10/07/2020||$ 30 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||14/07/2020||$ 244 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||24/07/2020||$ 11 M|
|Investment in vaccines||27/06/2020||$ 127 M|
Level is in ordinal scale and higher value means more strict measures. Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.
This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.
The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.
We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. COVID-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.
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