502,063 Cases in Chile 

Flag

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478,252 Recovered
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723 Critical
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13,944 Deaths


Country Cases New Cases Deaths New Deaths Critical Recovered
Chile 502063 1540 13944 52 723 478252
| EN | | EL |

COVID-19 Projections for Chile


In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for Chile. NOTE: Our first projection day for Chile is May 26th, 2020. Until this moment, there has been no change to the initial projection. If there is an update on the projection, we will inform you on this page.

The initial population of Chile that has been incorporated into the model is 19,116,209. The measures taken by Chile authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:

PoliciesDate (D/M/Y)Level
School closing15/03/20203
Workplace closing21/03/20202
Workplace closing16/03/20203
Cancel public events16/03/20202
Restrictions on gatherings16/03/20202
Restrictions on gatherings25/03/20203
Stay at home requirements25/03/20202
Restrictions on internal movement25/03/20202
International travel controls18/03/20203
Income support02/04/20201
Debt/contract relief27/03/20201
Fiscal measures19/03/2020$ 10250 M
Fiscal measures08/04/2020$ 5000 M
Fiscal measures07/05/2020$ 290 M
Public information campaigns14/03/20202
Testing policy26/03/20202
Emergency investment in healthcare16/01/2020$ 0 M
Emergency investment in healthcare13/03/2020$ 262 M
Emergency investment in healthcare19/03/2020$ 1500 M

Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.

The first case reported on 05/03/2020 and the first death reported on 22/03/2020.

The aforementioned information is derived from the data. From this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.

The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.

With this in mind, we assume that around 50 exposed persons entered the Chilean province between 20/02/2020 and 04/03/2020.

The Potential Isolation Effectiveness reached 25% and the Behavioral Risk Reduction reached 89%.

The reaction time of people to the measures is 7 days, on average.

The confirmed cases are around 20% of the real number. This percentage is bigger compared to other countries.

We assume that season has an effect of 26%.

Overall, Chile tries to increase Hospital Capacity. This analysis assumes that the measures stay as they are; if any of the aforementioned measures are lifted, the analysis must be updated.

More details about the model can be found here.

Please visit the official website of Chilean government for official information.


Disclaimer

This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.

The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.

We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. Covid-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.

The project is self-funded. Your contribution is important for the operating expenses of this site and for coffee, our basic fuel. Every donation will help us continue this effort.


Contact

If you find this analysis useful please do not hesitate to contact us at: info@covid-analysis.com