| Country | Cases | New Cases | Deaths | New Deaths | Critical | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chile | 1511275 | 0 | 31392 | 0 | 3275 | 1439182 |
In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for Chile. NOTE: Our first projection day for Chile is May 26th, 2020. Until this moment, there has been no change to the initial projection. If there is an update on the projection, we will inform you on this page.
The initial population of Chile that has been incorporated into the model is 19,116,209. The measures taken by Chile authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:
| Policies | Date (D/M/Y) | Level |
|---|---|---|
| School closing | 15/03/2020 | 3 |
| Workplace closing | 21/03/2020 | 2 |
| Workplace closing | 16/03/2020 | 3 |
| Cancel public events | 16/03/2020 | 2 |
| Restrictions on gatherings | 16/03/2020 | 2 |
| Restrictions on gatherings | 25/03/2020 | 3 |
| Stay at home requirements | 25/03/2020 | 2 |
| Restrictions on internal movement | 25/03/2020 | 2 |
| International travel controls | 18/03/2020 | 3 |
| Income support | 02/04/2020 | 1 |
| Debt/contract relief | 27/03/2020 | 1 |
| Fiscal measures | 19/03/2020 | $ 10250 M |
| Fiscal measures | 08/04/2020 | $ 5000 M |
| Fiscal measures | 07/05/2020 | $ 290 M |
| Public information campaigns | 14/03/2020 | 2 |
| Testing policy | 26/03/2020 | 2 |
| Emergency investment in healthcare | 16/01/2020 | $ 0 M |
| Emergency investment in healthcare | 13/03/2020 | $ 262 M |
| Emergency investment in healthcare | 19/03/2020 | $ 1500 M |
Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.
The first case reported on 05/03/2020 and the first death reported on 22/03/2020.
The aforementioned information is derived from the data. From this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.
The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.
With this in mind, we assume that around 50 exposed persons entered the Chilean province between 20/02/2020 and 04/03/2020.
The Potential Isolation Effectiveness reached 25% and the Behavioral Risk Reduction reached 89%.
The reaction time of people to the measures is 7 days, on average.
The confirmed cases are around 20% of the real number. This percentage is bigger compared to other countries.
We assume that season has an effect of 26%.
Overall, Chile tries to increase Hospital Capacity. This analysis assumes that the measures stay as they are; if any of the aforementioned measures are lifted, the analysis must be updated.
More details about the model can be found here.
Please visit the official website of Chilean government for official information.
This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.
The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.
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If you find this analysis useful please do not hesitate to contact us at: info@covid-analysis.com