In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for Chile. NOTE: Our first projection day for Chile is May 26th, 2020. Until this moment, there has been no change to the initial projection. If there is an update on the projection, we will inform you on this page.
The initial population of Chile that has been incorporated into the model is 19,116,209. The measures taken by Chile authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:
|Cancel public events||16/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on gatherings||16/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on gatherings||25/03/2020||3|
|Stay at home requirements||25/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on internal movement||25/03/2020||2|
|International travel controls||18/03/2020||3|
|Fiscal measures||19/03/2020||$ 10250 M|
|Fiscal measures||08/04/2020||$ 5000 M|
|Fiscal measures||07/05/2020||$ 290 M|
|Public information campaigns||14/03/2020||2|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||16/01/2020||$ 0 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||13/03/2020||$ 262 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||19/03/2020||$ 1500 M|
Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.
The first case reported on 05/03/2020 and the first death reported on 22/03/2020.
The aforementioned information is derived from the data. From this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.
The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.
With this in mind, we assume that around 50 exposed persons entered the Chilean province between 20/02/2020 and 04/03/2020.
The reaction time of people to the measures is 7 days, on average.
The confirmed cases are around 20% of the real number. This percentage is bigger compared to other countries.
We assume that season has an effect of 26%.
Overall, Chile tries to increase Hospital Capacity. This analysis assumes that the measures stay as they are; if any of the aforementioned measures are lifted, the analysis must be updated.
More details about the model can be found here.
Please visit the official website of Chilean government for official information.
This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.
The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.
We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. Covid-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.
The project is self-funded. Your contribution is important for the operating expenses of this site and for coffee, our basic fuel. Every donation will help us continue this effort.
If you find this analysis useful please do not hesitate to contact us at: firstname.lastname@example.org