In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for India. NOTE: Our first projection day for India is June 4th, 2020. Until this moment, there has been no change to the initial projection. If there is an update on the projection, we will inform you on this page.
The initial population of India that has been incorporated into the model is 1,380,004,385. The measures taken by Indian authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:
|Cancel public events||05/03/2020||1|
|Cancel public events||14/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on gatherings||19/03/2020||4|
|Close public transport||20/03/2020||2|
|Stay at home requirements||26/01/2020||1|
|Stay at home requirements||22/03/2020||3|
|Stay at home requirements||04/05/2020||2|
|Restrictions on internal movement||16/03/2020||1|
|Restrictions on internal movement||20/03/2020||2|
|International travel controls||26/01/2020||1|
|International travel controls||13/03/2020||2|
|International travel controls||15/03/2020||3|
|International travel controls||22/03/2020||4|
|Fiscal measures||19/03/2020||$ 2600 M|
|Fiscal measures||26/03/2020||$ 22660 M|
|Fiscal measures||12/05/2020||$ 266470 M|
|International support||15/03/2020||$ 10 M|
|Public information campaigns||25/01/2020||1|
|Public information campaigns||05/03/2020||2|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||22/04/2020||$ 1000 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||13/05/2020||$ 264 M|
|Investment in vaccines||13/05/2020||$ 13 M|
Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.
The first case reported on 02/02/2020 and the first death reported on 11/03/2020.
The aforementioned information is derived from the data. From this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.
The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.
With this in mind, we assume that around 50 exposed persons entered the Indian province between 08/02/2020 and 24/02/2020. There is a difference between the first reported case and our assumption. We believe that first cases that were found, were isolated efficiently and later on, new cases entered the country.
The reaction time of people to the measures is 5 days, on average.
The confirmed cases are around 6% of the real number.
We assume that season has an effect of 20%.
After the loosening of measures at 20/04/2020 and at 04/05/2020 India tries to keep a balance between its economy and the increase of cases. India's goal is to have linear increase in cases instead of exponential. This analysis assumes that the measures stay as they are; if any of the aforementioned measures are lifted, the analysis must be updated.
More details about the model can be found here.
Please visit the official website of Indian government for official information.
This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.
The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.
We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. COVID-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.
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