7,708,947 Cases in India 

Flag

sentiment_very_satisfied
6,874,518 Recovered
sentiment_dissatisfied
8,944 Critical
sentiment_very_dissatisfied
116,681 Deaths


Country Cases New Cases Deaths New Deaths Critical Recovered
India 7708947 3789 116681 28 8944 6874518
| EN | | EL |

COVID-19 Projections for India


In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for India. NOTE: Our first projection day for India is June 4th, 2020. Until this moment, there has been no change to the initial projection. If there is an update on the projection, we will inform you on this page.

The initial population of India that has been incorporated into the model is 1,380,004,385. The measures taken by Indian authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:

PoliciesDate (D/M/Y)Level
School closing04/03/20202
School closing13/03/20203
Workplace closing16/03/20201
Workplace closing21/03/20203
Workplace closing20/04/20202
Cancel public events05/03/20201
Cancel public events14/03/20202
Restrictions on gatherings19/03/20204
Close public transport20/03/20202
Stay at home requirements26/01/20201
Stay at home requirements22/03/20203
Stay at home requirements04/05/20202
Restrictions on internal movement16/03/20201
Restrictions on internal movement20/03/20202
International travel controls26/01/20201
International travel controls13/03/20202
International travel controls15/03/20203
International travel controls22/03/20204
Income support20/03/20201
Debt/contract relief01/03/20202
Fiscal measures19/03/2020$ 2600 M
Fiscal measures26/03/2020$ 22660 M
Fiscal measures12/05/2020$ 266470 M
International support15/03/2020$ 10 M
Public information campaigns25/01/20201
Public information campaigns05/03/20202
Testing policy25/01/20201
Testing policy09/04/20203
Emergency investment in healthcare22/04/2020$ 1000 M
Emergency investment in healthcare13/05/2020$ 264 M
Investment in vaccines13/05/2020$ 13 M

Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.

The first case reported on 02/02/2020 and the first death reported on 11/03/2020.

The aforementioned information is derived from the data. From this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.

The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.

With this in mind, we assume that around 50 exposed persons entered the Indian province between 08/02/2020 and 24/02/2020. There is a difference between the first reported case and our assumption. We believe that first cases that were found, were isolated efficiently and later on, new cases entered the country.

The Potential Isolation Effectiveness reached 15% and the Behavioral Risk Reduction reached 75%.

The reaction time of people to the measures is 5 days, on average.

The confirmed cases are around 6% of the real number.

We assume that season has an effect of 20%.

After the loosening of measures at 20/04/2020 and at 04/05/2020 India tries to keep a balance between its economy and the increase of cases. India's goal is to have linear increase in cases instead of exponential. This analysis assumes that the measures stay as they are; if any of the aforementioned measures are lifted, the analysis must be updated.

More details about the model can be found here.

Please visit the official website of Indian government for official information.


Disclaimer

This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.

The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.

We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. COVID-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.

The project is self-funded. Your contribution is important for the operating expenses of this site and for coffee, our basic fuel. Every donation will help us continue this effort.


Contact

If you find this analysis useful please do not hesitate to contact us at: info@covid-analysis.com