525,782 Cases in Italy 

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266,203 Recovered
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1,208 Critical
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37,338 Deaths


Country Cases New Cases Deaths New Deaths Critical Recovered
Italy 525782 21273 37338 128 1208 266203
| EN | | EL |

COVID-19 Projections for Italy


Introduction | Videos | Our analysis | Policies | Disclaimer | Contact


Introduction

In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for Italy.

NOTE: We have updated our projection. New first projection day for Italy is July 25, 2020.

If there will be any more updates, we will inform you on this page. You can view projections of other countries here.


Videos

These videos are an animation of confirmed cases and deaths with embedded the measures taken from country authorities. We believe that with these timelapses it is more easy to understand the magnitude and the speed of spreading of COVID-19. These videos will not be updated daily, but whenever is necessary. To see the projections scroll up to the top of this page.


Our analysis

The initial population of Italy that has been incorporated into the model is 60,461,828.

The first case reported on 31/01/2020 and the first death reported on 21/02/2020.

From first case to first measures : 21 days.
From first deaths to first measures : 0 days.
From first measure to lockdown : 28 days.
Duration of lockdown : 45 days.
From partially re-opening to re-opened : 42 days.

The aforementioned information is derived from the data and from this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.

The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.

With this in mind, we assume that around 450 exposed persons entered Italy between 26/01/2020 and 10/02/2020.

We assume that season has an effect of 44%.

The confirmed cases are around 6% of the real number.

The reaction time of people to the measures is 6 days, on average.

The Potential Isolation Effectiveness reached 35%. The Behavioral Risk Reduction was 88% after the lockdown, gradually decreased to 75% and after partially re-opening was around 60%. Now for the current projection we assume that is 45%.

Overall, Italy exceeded the Hospital Capacity. People reacted to the mitigation measures after seeing the death roll rising. The measures were implemented later than they should have been. This is logical as Italy was the first country in Europe that COVID-19 has spread. Italy has COVID-19 spread under control after a long time of hard measures. Because it was the first country hitted by COVID-19 people are behaving responsible and they not easing their attention. For future, if Italy controls the spread like now, the start of a second wave must be expected at the end of September, assuming that the measures stay as they are.

More details about the model can be found here.

Please visit the official website of Italian government for official information.


Policies

The measures taken by Italian authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:

PoliciesDateLevel
School closing23/02/20203
Workplace closing22/02/20203
Workplace closing04/05/20201
Workplace closing16/05/20202
Cancel public events23/02/20202
Restrictions on gatherings23/02/20204
Restrictions on gatherings15/06/20202
Close public transport11/03/20201
Close public transport12/04/20202
Stay at home requirements23/02/20202
Stay at home requirements20/03/20203
Stay at home requirements04/05/20201
Restrictions on internal movement21/02/20202
Restrictions on internal movement04/05/20201
International travel controls23/01/20201
International travel controls30/01/20203
International travel controls04/05/20202
Income support17/03/20201
Debt/contract relief17/03/20201
Debt/contract relief02/06/20202
Fiscal measures28/02/2020$ 100 M
Fiscal measures01/03/2020$ 4000 M
Fiscal measures08/03/2020$ 8500 M
Fiscal measures11/03/2020$ 2784 M
Fiscal measures06/04/2020$ 452656 M
Fiscal measures13/05/2020$ 59600 M
Fiscal measures09/07/2020$ 237 M
Public information campaigns31/01/20202
Testing policy31/01/20201
Testing policy26/02/20202
Emergency investment in healthcare16/03/2020$ 3564 M
Emergency investment in healthcare20/04/2020$ 326 M
Emergency investment in healthcare13/05/2020$ 3500 M

Level is in ordinal scale and higher value means more strict measures. Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.


Disclaimer

This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.

The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.

We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. COVID-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.

The project is self-funded. Your contribution is important for the operating expenses of this site and for coffee, our basic fuel. Every donation will help us continue this effort.


Contact

If you find this analysis useful please do not hesitate to contact us at: info@covid-analysis.com