In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for Italy.
NOTE: We have updated our projection. New first projection day for Italy is July 25, 2020.
If there will be any more updates, we will inform you on this page. You can view projections of other countries here.
These videos are an animation of confirmed cases and deaths with embedded the measures taken from country authorities. We believe that with these timelapses it is more easy to understand the magnitude and the speed of spreading of COVID-19. These videos will not be updated daily, but whenever is necessary. To see the projections scroll up to the top of this page.
The initial population of Italy that has been incorporated into the model is 60,461,828.
The first case reported on 31/01/2020 and the first death reported on 21/02/2020.
From first case to first measures : 21 days. From first deaths to first measures : 0 days. From first measure to lockdown : 28 days. Duration of lockdown : 45 days. From partially re-opening to re-opened : 42 days.
The aforementioned information is derived from the data and from this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.
The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.
With this in mind, we assume that around 450 exposed persons entered Italy between 26/01/2020 and 10/02/2020.
We assume that season has an effect of 44%.
The confirmed cases are around 6% of the real number.
The reaction time of people to the measures is 6 days, on average.
The Potential Isolation Effectiveness reached 35%. The Behavioral Risk Reduction was 88% after the lockdown, gradually decreased to 75% and after partially re-opening was around 60%. Now for the current projection we assume that is 45%.
Overall, Italy exceeded the Hospital Capacity. People reacted to the mitigation measures after seeing the death roll rising. The measures were implemented later than they should have been. This is logical as Italy was the first country in Europe that COVID-19 has spread. Italy has COVID-19 spread under control after a long time of hard measures. Because it was the first country hitted by COVID-19 people are behaving responsible and they not easing their attention. For future, if Italy controls the spread like now, the start of a second wave must be expected at the end of September, assuming that the measures stay as they are.
More details about the model can be found here.
Please visit the official website of Italian government for official information.
The measures taken by Italian authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:
|Cancel public events||23/02/2020||2|
|Restrictions on gatherings||23/02/2020||4|
|Restrictions on gatherings||15/06/2020||2|
|Close public transport||11/03/2020||1|
|Close public transport||12/04/2020||2|
|Stay at home requirements||23/02/2020||2|
|Stay at home requirements||20/03/2020||3|
|Stay at home requirements||04/05/2020||1|
|Restrictions on internal movement||21/02/2020||2|
|Restrictions on internal movement||04/05/2020||1|
|International travel controls||23/01/2020||1|
|International travel controls||30/01/2020||3|
|International travel controls||04/05/2020||2|
|Fiscal measures||28/02/2020||$ 100 M|
|Fiscal measures||01/03/2020||$ 4000 M|
|Fiscal measures||08/03/2020||$ 8500 M|
|Fiscal measures||11/03/2020||$ 2784 M|
|Fiscal measures||06/04/2020||$ 452656 M|
|Fiscal measures||13/05/2020||$ 59600 M|
|Fiscal measures||09/07/2020||$ 237 M|
|Public information campaigns||31/01/2020||2|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||16/03/2020||$ 3564 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||20/04/2020||$ 326 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||13/05/2020||$ 3500 M|
Level is in ordinal scale and higher value means more strict measures. Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.
This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.
The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.
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