In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for Netherlands. NOTE: Our first projection day for Netherlands is May 12th, 2020. At the time of writing, there has been no change to the initial projection.
The initial population of Netherlands that has been incorporated into the model is 17,134,873. The measures taken by Netherlands authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:
|Cancel public events||10/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on gatherings||12/03/2020||3|
|Close public transport||31/03/2020||1|
|Stay at home requirements||12/03/2020||1|
|Stay at home requirements||23/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on internal movement||06/03/2020||1|
|Fiscal measures||17/03/2020||$ 10976 M|
|Fiscal measures||07/04/2020||$ 121 M|
|Fiscal measures||01/05/2020||$ 121 M|
|Fiscal measures||08/05/2020||$ 823 M|
|Public information campaigns||09/03/2020||2|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||03/04/2020||$ 25 M|
Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.
The first case reported on 29/02/2020 and the first death reported on 06/03/2020.
The aforementioned information is derived from the data and from this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.
The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.
With this in mind, we assume that around 500 exposed persons entered Netherlands between 14/02/2020 and 07/03/2020.
The Potential Isolation Effectiveness reached 30% and the Behavioral Risk Reduction reached 85%.
The reaction time of people to the measures is 10 days, on average.
The confirmed cases are around 8% of the real number.
We assume that season has an effect of 30%.
Overall, Netherlands did not exceed the Hospital Capacity. The difference between confirmed and projected cases, depicted in the charts, possibly occurs by a change in the testing policy. In our model, we could change the parameters in order to fit the confirmed cases. Specifically, we could change the variable "Fraction of Real Cases" and our projection on the confirmed cases would fit on the data, but this is not the scope of our analysis. We want to show that at some point between 28/04/2020 and 01/5/2020 confirmed cases are heavily underestimated in Netherlands.
Another remarkable point is the behavior of the citizens. Based on the shape of the curves, we can make the assumption that just after the first peak - which occured around 05/04/2020 - the mechanism of public perception was activated. People saw the curves going down and loosened up their behaviour towards self-protection measures.
This analysis assumes that the measures stay as they are; if any of the aforementioned measures are lifted, the analysis must be updated.
More details about the model can be found here.
Please visit the official website of Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM) for official information.
This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.
The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.
We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. Covid-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.
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If you find this analysis useful please do not hesitate to contact us at: firstname.lastname@example.org