In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for Pakistan. NOTE: Our first projection day for Pakistan is June 7th, 2020. Until this moment, there has been no change to the initial projection. If there is an update on the projection, we will inform you on this page.
The initial population of Pakistan that has been incorporated into the model is 220,892,331. The measures taken by Pakistani authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:
|Cancel public events||13/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on gatherings||13/03/2020||4|
|Close public transport||23/03/2020||2|
|Stay at home requirements||23/03/2020||2|
|Stay at home requirements||21/05/2020||1|
|Restrictions on internal movement||24/03/2020||2|
|International travel controls||31/01/2020||3|
|International travel controls||21/03/2020||4|
|Fiscal measures||21/03/2020||$ 40 M|
|Fiscal measures||24/03/2020||$ 7561 M|
|Fiscal measures||08/04/2020||$ 560 M|
|International support||15/05/2020||$ 163 M|
|Public information campaigns||12/02/2020||2|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||02/04/2020||$ 200 M|
Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.
The first case reported on 26/02/2020 and the first death reported on 19/03/2020.
The aforementioned information is derived from the data. From this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.
The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.
With this in mind, we assume that around 70 exposed persons entered the Pakistani province between 14/02/2020 and 29/02/2020.
The reaction time of people to the measures is 5 days, on average.
The confirmed cases are around 10% of the real number.
We assume that season has an effect of 22%.
The number of confirmed deaths is low compared to the population of the country. It seems that the government has controlled the spread of coronavirus. After the loosening of measures at 15/04/2020 and at 21/05/2020 there is an increase in confirmed cases and deaths. Pakistan seems to take advantage of the season in order to control better the pandemic during summer. This analysis assumes that the measures stay as they are; if any of the aforementioned measures are lifted, the analysis must be updated.
More details about the model can be found here.
Please visit the official website of Pakistani government for official information.
This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.
The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.
We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. COVID-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.
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If you find this analysis useful please do not hesitate to contact us at: firstname.lastname@example.org