325,480 Cases in Pakistan 

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309,136 Recovered
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591 Critical
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6,702 Deaths


Country Cases New Cases Deaths New Deaths Critical Recovered
Pakistan 325480 736 6702 10 591 309136
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COVID-19 Projections for Pakistan


In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for Pakistan. NOTE: Our first projection day for Pakistan is June 7th, 2020. Until this moment, there has been no change to the initial projection. If there is an update on the projection, we will inform you on this page.

The initial population of Pakistan that has been incorporated into the model is 220,892,331. The measures taken by Pakistani authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:

PoliciesDate (D/M/Y)Level
School closing27/02/20203
Workplace closing23/03/20203
Workplace closing15/04/20202
Cancel public events13/03/20202
Restrictions on gatherings13/03/20204
Close public transport23/03/20202
Stay at home requirements23/03/20202
Stay at home requirements21/05/20201
Restrictions on internal movement24/03/20202
International travel controls31/01/20203
International travel controls21/03/20204
Income support09/04/20201
Debt/contract relief16/04/20201
Debt/contract relief21/05/20202
Fiscal measures21/03/2020$ 40 M
Fiscal measures24/03/2020$ 7561 M
Fiscal measures08/04/2020$ 560 M
International support15/05/2020$ 163 M
Public information campaigns12/02/20202
Testing policy25/02/20201
Testing policy11/04/20202
Emergency investment in healthcare02/04/2020$ 200 M

Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.

The first case reported on 26/02/2020 and the first death reported on 19/03/2020.

The aforementioned information is derived from the data. From this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.

The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.

With this in mind, we assume that around 70 exposed persons entered the Pakistani province between 14/02/2020 and 29/02/2020.

The Potential Isolation Effectiveness reached 20% and the Behavioral Risk Reduction reached 80%.

The reaction time of people to the measures is 5 days, on average.

The confirmed cases are around 10% of the real number.

We assume that season has an effect of 22%.

The number of confirmed deaths is low compared to the population of the country. It seems that the government has controlled the spread of coronavirus. After the loosening of measures at 15/04/2020 and at 21/05/2020 there is an increase in confirmed cases and deaths. Pakistan seems to take advantage of the season in order to control better the pandemic during summer. This analysis assumes that the measures stay as they are; if any of the aforementioned measures are lifted, the analysis must be updated.

More details about the model can be found here.

Please visit the official website of Pakistani government for official information.


Disclaimer

This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.

The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.

We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. COVID-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.

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Contact

If you find this analysis useful please do not hesitate to contact us at: info@covid-analysis.com