In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for Russia. NOTE: Our first projection day for Russia is May 18th, 2020. Until this moment, there has been no change to the initial projection. If there is an update on the projection, we will inform you on this page.
The initial population of Russia that has been incorporated into the model is 145,934,460. The measures taken by Russian authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:
|Cancel public events||10/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on gatherings||10/03/2020||1|
|Restrictions on gatherings||16/03/2020||3|
|Restrictions on gatherings||30/03/2020||4|
|Close public transport||30/03/2020||1|
|Stay at home requirements||30/03/2020||3|
|Restrictions on internal movement||05/03/2020||2|
|Public information campaigns||16/03/2020||2|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||04/02/2020||$ 19 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||04/04/2020||$ 3 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||08/04/2020||$ 742 M|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||13/04/2020||$ 668 M|
|Investment in vaccines||23/03/2020||$ 286 M|
Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.
The first case reported on 31/01/2020 and the first death reported on 19/03/2020.
The aforementioned information is derived from the data. From this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.
The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.
With this in mind, we assume that around 90 exposed persons entered the Russian province between 20/02/2020 and 27/02/2020. There is a difference between the first reported case and our assumption. We believe that first cases that were found, were isolated efficiently and later on, new cases entered the country.
The reaction time of people to the measures is 6 days, on average.
The confirmed cases are around 7% of the real number.
We assume that season has an effect of 21%.
Overall, Russia did not exceed the Hospital Capacity. In Russia, measures are taken whenever they see it is necessary. Otherwise, they let the phenomenon to evolve. We hypothesize that the curve has reached its peak around May 15th.
This analysis assumes that the measures stay as they are; if any of the aforementioned measures are lifted, the analysis must be updated.
More details about the model can be found here.
Please visit the official website of Ministry of Health of Russia for official information.
This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.
The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.
We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. Covid-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.
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If you find this analysis useful please do not hesitate to contact us at: firstname.lastname@example.org