In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for Spain. NOTE: Our first projection day for Spain is May 9th, 2020. At the time of writing, there has been no change to the initial projection.
The initial population of Spain that has been incorporated into the model is 46,754,783. The measures taken by Spain authorities by date (Day/Month/Year) are:
|Cancel public events||10/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on gatherings||10/03/2020||1|
|Restrictions on gatherings||30/03/2020||4|
|Close public transport||14/03/2020||1|
|Stay at home requirements||14/03/2020||2|
|Restrictions on internal movement||09/03/2020||1|
|Fiscal measures||12/03/2020||$ 15999 M|
|Fiscal measures||17/03/2020||$ 238509 M|
|Public information campaigns||31/01/2020||2|
|Emergency investment in healthcare||12/03/2020||$ 4213 M|
|Investment in vaccines||17/03/2020||$ 26 M|
Detailed explanation about the table can be found here.
The first case reported on 09/02/2020 and the first death reported on 03/03/2020.
The aforementioned information is derived from the data and from this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.
The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of Covid-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.
The reported data for Spain have many errors, authorities in Spain strungle to provide good daily reports. The data in the charts and in the analysis were manually corrected based on ECDC and John Hopkings daily reports.
With this in mind, we assume that around 180 exposed persons entered Spain between 28/01/2020 and 12/02/2020.
The Potential Isolation Effectiveness reached 30% and the Behavioral Risk Reduction reached 85%.
The reaction time of people to the measures is 5 days, on average.
The confirmed cases are around 8% of the real number.
We assume that season has an effect of 45%.
Overall, Spain exceeded the Hospital Capacity. People reacted to the mitigation measures very quickly as the sharp peak denotes. The measures were implemented later than they should have been. This analysis assumes that the measures stay as they are; if any of the aforementioned measures are lifted, the analysis must be updated.
More details about the model can be found here.
Please visit the official website of Spain government for official information.
This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.
The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.
We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. Covid-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.
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