2,858,949 Cases in New York 


2,363,548 Recovered
0 Critical
58,257 Deaths

Country Cases New Cases Deaths New Deaths Critical Recovered
New York 2858949 7858 58257 15 0 2363548
| EN | | EL |
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COVID-19 Projections for New York

In this section, we give a short summary about our projections for New York. NOTE: Our first projection day for New York is June 24th, 2020. Until this moment, there has been no change to the initial projection. If there is an update on the projection, we will inform you on this page.

The initial population of New York that has been incorporated into the model is 19,453,561.

Stay-at-home order expired on May 28.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, a Democrat, announced limited and phased reopenings by region starting May 15. By June 24, everywhere but New York City had entered the third stage, which allows gatherings of up to 25 people. As statewide metrics continued to improve, Mr. Cuomo said people entering New York from states that were hotspots for the virus would have to quarantine for two weeks.

RetailRetail stores
Food and drinkOutdoor dining at restaurants in some regions; Indoor dining in some regions
Personal careTattoo parlors, massage parlors, nail salons in some regions; Hair salons, barbershops
Houses of worship
EntertainmentMuseums and aquariums in some regions
Outdoor and recreationBeaches; Fishing and hunting; Public pools and playgrounds; Outdoor zoos, botanical gardens and nature parks in some regions
IndustriesConstruction, manufacturing; Offices; Film and TV production in some regions
EntertainmentMovie theaters, casinos; Amusement parks, bowling alleys
Outdoor and recreationGyms

More details about the table can be found here.

The first case reported on March 3, 2020 and the first death reported on March 12, 2020.

NOTE: Number 0 in Critical cases indicates null value and not zero critical patients.

The aforementioned information is derived from the data and from this point on we analyze our assumptions, choices and conclusions based on the model.

The basic assumption is that the reported data are not showing the reality of COVID-19 spread. This is based on the fact that there is no efficient testing on the whole population. For our analysis, only daily deaths can give a good estimation of the disease progression. This is the reason why we do not calibrate the model to the data, as we want the model to capture what happens in reality, without overfitting.

With this in mind, we assume that around 100 exposed persons entered New York between February 2, 2020 and February 17, 2020.

The Potential Isolation Effectiveness reached 15%. The Behavioral Risk Reduction reached around 87% at the peak of the curve and now it's around 70%.

The reaction time of people to the measures is 5 days, on average.

The confirmed cases are around 8% of the real number.

We assume that season has an effect of 20%.

More details about the model can be found here.

Please visit the official website of New York state government for official information.


This analysis contains Work in Progress (WIP) results. No rights can be derived from any of the results.

The projection that is visualized is only one simulation run and is not forecast neither future prediction.

We are not directly or indirectly owned or managed by any governmental organization, public charity, non-profit, or private foundation. COVID-Analysis is not affiliated, associated with, or in any way has any official status with the United Nations or any other official organization.

The project is self-funded. Your contribution is important for the operating expenses of this site and for coffee, our basic fuel. Every donation will help us continue this effort.


If you find this analysis useful please do not hesitate to contact us at: info@covid-analysis.com

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